Australian Guineas
A couple have won in the range between 3.50 and 4.00 which makes me suspect that Alligator Blood will add to the success of this type. Most commonly winners have been around 2.00 and Catalyst and Chenier are closest to this range, but probably not quite right in my view. I do suspect though that these are the ones who might be more likely to head to Sydney for the 3yo classics there and should be competitive. Dalasan is another with this 3yo classic type profile and he will put in another honest effort, although one I am looking forward to seeing over some more ground. I cna't see the Alligator getting beaten though.
Tancred Stakes
In summary, I am fairly confident that the winner will come from Avilius, Mugatoo or Verry Elleegant.
AJC Derby
I must admit that I am a fan of Quick Thinker and I think he is good value in the race after his impressive win last week.
GOLDEN SLIPPER 2020
I think that Farnan is the one who looks best suited in terms of the individual ratings of these three, and in fact he is my selection for the race.
DONCASTER 2020
The 3yo (Brandenburg) looks the standout of these to me, and I think at reasonable odds looks like a strong bet. A tough race though, and it will come down to luck, but he has plenty to like about him.
SIRES' PRODUCE 2020
The highest DI of a winner in the last decade was Microphone last year at 5.22 which certainly makes we wonder about the ability of the top two to win this year. King's Legacy, Aim, Glenfiddich and Cultural Amnesia all have some chances in a really open event in my view.
VRC St LEGER
We also have two winners with a DI of 3.00 and 3.80 which brings us to Sacramento who looks the ideal horse for us. I expect him to salute at a reasonable price.
SA FILLIES CLASSIC
A case can be made for just about every runner but I think that the one that looks best suited in terms of dosage is Realm Of Flowers and she is the one I will be on after an impressive win at her last start. She is from the family of the very good racehorse and sire, Dancing Brave who won an Arc De Triomphe as a 3yo and also Redwood by High Chaparral who won Group 1's in both Canada and the UK and stands at stud in NZ. The filly is well and truly bred to run the trip and could just be the first winner of this race to go on to much bigger and better things.
SA Derby
It is the colts though that look to be the testing material here, and again past winners give us a guide to this year's race. First up we have seen winners at the more extreme staying range of around 0.70. We see five runners in this range and I expect the winner to come from these. Dalasan and Russian Camelot both fit here, but of all, it is Dalasan who looks closest to the mark. Warning is an interesting runner because if we consider his sire Declaration of War to be a source of stamina, he would come into calculation here. Even then, he seems to miss the mark a little, so I am happy to leave him out of calculations in favour of the other two.
SA Oaks
In summary, the two main chances look to be Toffee Tongue and Silent Sovereign, with Zayydani and Asiago the two roughies that could put value into the multiples
GUNSYND CLASSIC
no doubt Kinane is a class horse, but he has only had four starts and hasn't raced for a month. On top of that, his win in the Frank Packer Plate, impressive as it was, rated only 61. He might be something out of the box, but taking evens jumping from barrier 17 isn't for me. Supergiant looks a horse with a lot of upside, while the filly Sky Horse looks like she could be an above average stayer.
McKELL CUP
I am going to suggest that this is what we need to be looking for, and the two highest are The Lord Mayor and Frankely Awesome. I think we can find some value with this pair. Good luck. FRANKELY AWESOME won and you could get $19 when the post was put up
UNDERWOOD STAKES
Dosages fortunately back up this optimism. Horses with a DI under 1.00 have won four of the last 11 Underwoods, and Russian Camelot fits very well. It will be a major shock if he does not win. The three main chances in terms of dosage look to be Humidor, So Si Bon and The Chosen One.
Doomben 10000
What do we make of this years' race? Past history may be misleading with the change in distance, but to date it hasn't made too much difference so will continue to use it as a guide. As we would expect, the past winners have often shown a large speed bias, with the majority of recent winners having a dosage index between 4.40 and 4.85. This year it is The Bostonian that sits nicely within that range so he must be considered a strong chance. Havasay is also within this range but his profile looks less suited than the others. Next we have a group of winners in the 2.70 to 3.00 range which sees Easy Eddie come in with his chance. We have also seen a winner with a dosage of 2.11 which means that the unlucky Osborne Bulls looks well suited.
I am confident that the winner will come from these three.
RESULT - The Bostonian won at $41 from Osborne Bull
Doomben Cup
So what do dosages of past winners tell us about this year's race. We have seen a few key ranges in recent years, with the first of these in the true staying range around 0.60. No runners this year reflect this range, although emergency Sixties Groove is the closest. Next we see winners around 1.20, and in fact three winners have had a dosage index between 1.18 and 1.29. Life Less Ordinary, Hallelujah Boy and Youngstar are the closest to this range, and of these I think that Hallelujah Boy looks like his profile matches the past winners most closely. It is that runner that I have on top. Next we have winners at 2.17, 2.83, 3.86 and 4.71 so quite a range in these. Gem Song, On The Rocks and Kenedna probably look best in these ranges.
Overall I think Hallelujah Boy looks a good chance, and his chances would not be hurt by a little more rain. He is fit and will likely race handy although his wide barrier draw is not a help so a lot will depend on how easily he finds a spot in running. But of course he is now not running, so where does that leave us? I think that there will be value in the multiples. Probably the two best in my view are Life Less Ordinary and the 3yo Gem Song, with Kenedna not too far away.
RESULT - Six horses were mentioned here as being suited. These included the first four home, and the dividend on that was a little over $17500.
Winx Stakes
The standout runner this year is Avilius and I expect him to win. He is a class horse, and in spite of a good quality field, he looks the standout. We have not seen a winner with a DI under 2.08 which suggests a few of these might struggle over the 1400m. Perhaps the next closest to recent winners is Samadoubt as we have seen Pinwheel (4.20) and Metal Bender (4.71) with dosages close to his. At any old odds, he could be a good one for the multiples.
RESULT - Samadoubt won at $41
Memsie Stakes
The runners who match the higher dosages of past winners include Sesar, again, and Scales Of Justice. The majority of winners have a dosage index around 2.00 so the enigmatic So Si Bon looks a real chance to me, and is a great each way chance at good odds. He is also by the 2010 winner, So You Think, so his heritage is not in doubt. As an older horse, he may just be coming to his best.
RESULT - Scales Of Justice beat So Si Bon with the odds on favourite, Alizee who we did not rate a winning chance running third.
Chelmsford Stakes
....last start upset winner Samadoubt again among the chances. Avilius looks the testing material and the class runner, but he is no winx. Unforgotten and Girl Tuesday look to be the value in the race and I think that there could be a profit to be made including these in multiples.
RESULT - Samadoubt beat Avilius and Girl Tuesday
Epsom 2019
I really think that the most likely winner is Kolding
RESULT - Kolding wins paying $5.50
Metropolitan 2019
Come Play With Me looks a strong chance to me, as does the European bred Grey Lion and at good odds, I think this pair represents value from a punting perspective.
RESULTS - Come Play With Me wins paying $8.50
Thousand Guineas
Most likely winner is probably favourite Flit who sits nicely with past winners. - The only other horse I mentioned was scratched. It was a narrow victory but a win nonetheless.
RESULTS - Flit first
CAULFIELD CUP
The Japanese horse, Mer De Glace and Rostropovich are the ones in this range with Mer De Glace the standout.
VRC DERBY
Three winners have had a DI between 1.30 and 1.53 so this brings Warning in and he probably looks our favoured way
ZIPPING CLASSIC
This year I think that Southern France looks to have the ideal profile for the race, and looks the likely winner.
LIGHTNING STAKES
Maybe not the greatest Lightning Stakes we have seen, but certainly an interesting bunch.
Most fit within the range of past winners, although I Am Excited and Loving Gaby are a bit higher than we would normally be looking for. I think that Gytrash is a bit of a dark horse and I expect him to run well and be a solid Group performer over the coming season or two.
Result - Gytrash won at odds of $26
BLUE DIAMOND
I really find it hard to go past Hanseatic as he looks something exceptional although I suspect two fillies in Aryaaf and Letzbeglam to run well. I am also wary of horses like Tagaloa and Rulership who have dosages a bit lower than we would expect from these 2yo's. They could well to prove quality horses as they mature, although they may also suffer a little with both being by Japanese stallions who are not necessarily well represented by chefs-de-race.
Results - Tagaloa at any old odds beat Hanseatic on a leader dominated track